Big programs like Duke, Kentucky, and Kansas attract the biggest names they can out of high school. Talents that are so highly touted that it is a foregone conclusion that they are planning on spending only one year in college. It makes sense on paper to try and get as many of the best prospects as you can but that process has proven not to work.

From the 2006-07 season to 2017-18 there has been 64 “one-and-done” players that were drafted in the NBA lottery (first 14 picks) after spending only one year in college (the 2018-19 draftees are excluded here because of the calculations to follow, but for those who are curious, it would add ten to the ranks). These players are supposed to be the best talents in all of college basketball, hence the reason they forego their collegiate eligibility, and yet they often do not find success past that one year of college and rarely even reach the pinnacle of NCAA competition.

In those 12 seasons where one-and-dones were drafted in the NBA lottery, the college teams that they have played for only won a national championship twice. The most recent was Duke, with Jahlil Okafor (#3 overall) and Justise Winslow (#10 overall) in the 2015-16 season. The other was Kentucky with Anthony Davis who is the only #1 overall pick to win a national championship in the years studied.

Kentucky by far has the most one-and-dones in that span with 15, Duke places second with seven players, and Kansas rounds out the top-three with five. It is difficult to measure the success of the players in college, as they only played one year, so we looked at their NBA success. The two are supposed to correlate, as the reason that most of the players choose to go to the schools that they do is to increase their draft stock and play some highlight reel basketball.

Of the 64 players that were drafted between 2006 and 2017, only 12 of them have been NBA All-Stars. People will say that that is not a proper measure as it is mostly a popularity contest and not based on skill, and that was taken into account as well. Of the 64 players, only 11 of them have been named to an All-NBA team. That is not just First Team All-NBA, that is all three teams. To put it differently, between 2006 and 2017 only 19 percent of one-and-dones have been NBA All-Stars and 17 percent have been All-NBA.

That is not a good success rate. Now downplaying how difficult it is to be an NBA All-Star or make an All-NBA team is not what is happening here. There are only so many spots in either of those pools and many of them are preset with players like Lebron, Kyrie, Westbrook and so on. The point to be made here is that these players are supposed to be the best there is coming into the NBA and in large part they are passed up by players that have more experience before entering the league.

You can see players all over the league that have more than one year experience in college and make All-Star and All-NBA teams. Even just one more year of experience makes a difference. If you go back and look at the 2011 draft, there were four one-and-dones drafted in the top-8. They were Kyrie Irving, Enes Kanter, Tristan Thompson, and Brandon Knight. There is only one player that has reached either the All-Star or All-NBA mark, and you can probably guess that Irving has reached both. Kanter and Thompson have had serviceable careers, and are decent starters in the NBA but they do not compare to others that were drafted in their class.

Round 1, 9th Overall, Kemba Walker
Walker is a 2-time all star and has averaged 17-plus points for seven straight years, the last four years he has averaged 20-plus. Walker spent three years at Connecticut and visibly improved each year that he played there, averaging 23.5 points, 4.5 assists, and 5.4 rebounds in his final season, up from 8.9, 2.9, and 3.5 in his freshman year.

Round 1, 11th Overall, Klay Thompson
One of the “Splash Brothers” and a 3-time NBA Champion, Thompson is one of the best shooters the NBA has ever seen. Riding six straight seasons scoring 18-plus points per game, Klay Thompson has earned All-NBA honors twice and been an All-Star four times. He played three years at Washington State and improved exponentially in the the two extra years that he technically needed to stay.

Round 1, 15th Overall, Kawhi Leonard
Leonard’s accolades are impressive and include a championship, finals MVP, 2-time Defensive Player of the Year, and of course a pair of All-Star and All-NBA selections. His defense is far and away the best in the league and he also spent more than one year in college. Leonard spent two years at San Diego State, averaging a double-double his sophomore year, earning him a 15th overall selection and a steal for the Spurs (and now Raptors).

Round 1, 30th Overall, Jimmy Butler
While he has been a bit of a journeyman, Butler has performed wherever he has gone. He holds two All-NBA selections, four All-Stars, and four All-Defensive teams. He has averaged 20-plus points four different times and plays shutdown defense, now for the 76ers. Butler played three years at Marquette, very obviously improving in his sophomore and junior years averaging 15.2 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 2.2 assists.

This class was pretty stacked with NBA talent and served as a good sample to illustrate the point that one-and-done players are generally not that successful. It is important for young players to get experience before entering into the NBA. Programs like Kentucky, Duke, and Kansas sell their schools to players through convincing them that playing for them will pave the way to the NBA. They technically are not wrong, they do get players to the NBA, but in large part they do not have legitimate success. So overall, it is actually a detriment to the players for them to go to the NBA after one year. For some players the one year is the best that they are going to have and they need to enter the draft in order to maximize the money they can get, that is understandable. For other more talented players, they really could use another year of experience. With the possible rule changes that are coming regarding the one-and-done rule, and now the payment of top-tier players to enter the NBA G League players could get more experience either from NCAA rules not allowing them to leave, or from NBA teams realizing that they are not up to par from watching them in the G League.

Players will always look for the earliest and easiest way to get their payout, and that is understandable when you are young, but the numbers do not lie and these players need rules to help them to have more successful careers in the league.

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