The College Football Playoff Board of Managers voted to expand the playoff system from four teams to 12 starting in 2026 when the current contract with ESPN ends. This is a huge boon for college football as since the CFP started, there have been sentiments that it is too exclusive having just four teams and doesn’t allow for any teams outside the Power 5 conferences to make it. That notion was allayed last season as the Cincinnati Bearcats made it into the playoff but the idea still persisted that there were some extremely good teams that were unable to compete for a national championship.

12-teams opens up a whole world of possibilities but will likely end up with the same teams competing in the end. College football is unlike basketball where there will almost always be a Cinderella team that overcomes superior teams. In football, those underdogs may win one game but that is likely all. However, even though it is probably going to be the usual suspects competing in the end, this new expansion changes the number of games from three to 11 which vastly improves the dollars and cents that will be made.

Anyway, this 12-team format has a long time before we see it in action so let’s have a look at how 2021 would stack up. It isn’t just the top-12 ranked teams that are seeded as such, there are rules that the CFP released:

• The 12 teams will be the six conference champions ranked highest by the selection committee (no minimum ranking requirement), plus the six highest-ranked teams not included among the six highest-ranked conference champions.
• The four highest-ranked conference champions will be seeded one through four and each will receive a first-round bye.
• The other eight teams will play in the first round with the higher seeds hosting the lower seeds either on campus or at other sites designated by the higher-seeded institution (No. 12 at No. 5, No. 11 at No. 6, No. 10 at No. 7 and No. 9 at No. 8.)

With those rules in mind, here’s what the bracket for last season would look like.

This bracket shows a pretty decent spread across all conferences other than the Pac-12 that only would have one team. Something to note that makes more sense than anything is that schools that are not in a conference will never receive a first-round bye week. Ergo, Notre Dame will never get a first-round bye which finally begins to level the playing field with that school. They shouldn’t be treated the same as other big time schools because they choose their opponents and don’t play a conference championship game and this new system treats them accordingly.

As mentioned above, in theory it is likely that the best teams will still rise to the top. That idea presents itself clearly with this bracket in that if you watched football last season, there were clearly a few teams that were on another level entirely.

Those teams were Georgia, Alabama and most of the time, Ohio State. Last season those schools would have been ranked 5, 1, and 7 respectively.

No disrespect to any of the other nine teams but it would be extremely unlikely that any team other than one of those three would win it all. Below is a prediction of what the results of the 12-team bracket may have looked like last season.

• Alabama: Being the number one seed would mean that their first opponent would be Oklahoma State, a good team but not one that could beat the Tide. Given how the National Championship shook out last year, it can also be reasonably assumed they would lose to Georgia.
• Ohio State: Playing a Big Ten opponent in Michigan State first could even have been helpful for the Buckeyes as the Spartans would not be up to the task as they were dismantled 56-7 earlier in the year. That would set up a rematch with Michigan that is certainly a closer game but mistakes cost them the first matchup but I wouldn’t bet against Ohio State to lose a second time. That then puts them up against Cincinnati where the Buckeyes would just overpower the Bearcats on both sides of the ball. That all leads to a handy loss at the hands of the Bulldogs.
• Georgia: A SEC Championship game loss dropped Georgia out of the top five and a bye week but that wouldn’t deter the Bulldogs. Pittsburgh and Baylor wouldn’t be able to keep up as the stifling Georgia defense snuffed out any and all offense for the entire season. Alabama would be a good game but as mentioned before, Georgia could beat them and it’s more than feasible they would. That sets up a date with Ohio State in the championship game, a Buckeye defense that could not keep up with Georgia and offense that wouldn’t be able to score enough. Georgia is the national champion.

This all creates a much more compelling postseason experience for teams and fans alike. This makes the playoffs much more expansive which opens up opportunities for players, teams, fans, etc. What it also does is extend the season.

Right now, most teams play 13 games (if they make their conference championship) and if they get to the national championship, 15 games in total. Now the maximum number of games would be 17, the same number that an NFL team plays in the regular season. That is a lot of games for 18-21 year old athletes and severely increases the risk for injury.

The timing is also interesting as those extra games make the playoff schedule difficult to compress into the same timing it is now. Conference championship games in 2021 took place during the first week of December. The new CFP directives call for at least 12 days between those games and the first round of the playoffs. That would mean the first games would be played on the 18th of December. It’s not clear what the timing of the other rounds would be but the New Years Bowls are huge moneymaking endeavors that organizers would likely want to keep in their place. Thus the second round would be played on Christmas Day so that the two big semifinal games could still happen on New Years Day. The CFP National Championship could still be the usual ~10 days later in January.

That schedule is great for fans but for players, not as much. That late into the season, fatigue and injuries are more likely, especially when playing four games in succession at maximum effort. Injuries that could certainly change the outcomes of who is national champion.

The 12-team expansion is a popular idea and one that will make a lot of money. But it could enact a heavy toll on athletes and likely won’t result in any other representation in the big game than there is now.